Why Play a Bad Starting Lineup?

I am not a fan of George Karl's coaching. Mostly because he doesn't seem to know things that a paid professional should know. My biggest problem with him is that he tends to play lineups that are unproductive more than he plays lineups that are productive.

For instance, the current starting lineup for the Nuggets is Billups, Jones, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. This is also the Nuggets lineup that has seen the most minutes this season. Unfortunately for those of us who are fans of the Nuggets, this oft-used lineup has been outscored this season 98-95 (over the course of 80 possessions).

When I first heard about the Chauncey Billups trade, I assumed the starting lineup would be Billups, Smith, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. This lineup has outscored its opponents 37-30 this season, but has only played about 34 possessions.

To put these lineups in equal terms, the starting lineup has a -5.30 efficiency differential, and the lineup with Smith instead of Jones in it has an efficiency differential of +15.07. Obviously, this is a small sample size, but it appears that the lesser used lineup is better. However, it would probably take an act of God for George Karl to play the better lineup more.

The argument could be made that the starting lineup is playing against *better* competition, so the comparison is unfair. That would be a good point. However, the Nuggets' comeback tonight occurred with the Wolves' best lineup on the court and the lineup with J.R. Smith was on the floor for the Nuggets.

Another problem with our starting lineup is that it cannot rebound. This lineup only gets about 60% of the available defensive rebounds. Sixty percent! If your opponent gets an offensive rebound forty percent of the time, it will be nearly impossible to play good defense over a sustained period of time.

If these trends hold up over the course of the season, I would suggest reconsidering the starting lineup. However, given the fact that Karl did nearly the identical thing last year (overly played a poor starting lineup), I am not holding my breath.