First Team Rankings

If I knew what was good for me, I wouldn't post these until about the end of December in order to get a better sample size, but here is a look at my rankings of each team. Without explaining in too much detail, the basic idea is that I measure each team on a per-possession basis against the strength of its competition. A score of 100 is exactly league average. I then add the offense and 1/defense scores together so that the average score is 200. Here they are...

Atlanta.........217.15
LA Lakers.......208.05
Cleveland.......207.95
Miami...........207.52
Boston..........207.48
New Orleans.....206.46
Orlando.........205.48
Chicago.........204.96
Indiana.........204.08
Toronto.........203.69
Philadelphia....202.32
Detroit.........201.66
Houston.........201.33
Utah............200.91
Charlotte.......200.83
Portland........200.43
Memphis.........200.20
Phoenix.........199.11
Denver..........199.10
Dallas..........197.46
Golden State....197.18
New York........195.58
Milwaukee.......195.38
New Jersey......195.30
San Antonio.....194.33
Oklahoma City...193.47
Washington......191.40
LA Clippers.....190.89
Sacremento......189.72
Minnesota.......186.64

Denver is in the middle of the pack, which is pretty much what you would expect. The biggest surprise is that Atlanta is on top, and it isn't even close. This is what happens when you beat New Orleans, Philly, Orlando and Toronto. I don't actually believe that Atlanta is the best team in the league (Like I said, this is a tiny sample size), but it is striking how well the Hawks have played, especially on defense.

Since these numbers are only based on a few games there is no sense in performing more analysis because a lot of fluky things can happen in so few games.

Also, as I said, I have a new predictor tool that I am testing against the spread this year. Although it is incredibly early to try this, here are my predictions for the games tonight.

Here are the picks (the number next to the pick is the difference between the Vegas line and my numbers):

IND...1
ORL...6
MIA...11.5
CHI...0
MIL...4.5
POR...1

Theoretically, the larger the number above, the better the chance you win the bet. Therefore, Orlando, Miami, and Milwaukee are the best bets. Again, I expect these predictions to be way off as it is WAY too early in the season.