Here are my rankings after most teams have now played 15 games. You will notice that there is one team unexpectantly making a run after the undisputed top three.
LA Lakers...........212.48
Cleveland Cavs......211.58
Boston Celtics......208.48
Portland Blazers....207.43
Orlando Magic.......204.93
Houston Rockets.....204.01
New Orleans.........203.32
Dallas Mavericks....202.76
Denver Nuggets......202.45
Atlanta Hawks.......201.84
Indiana Pacers......201.59
San Antonio Spurs...201.45
Toronto Raptors.....201.43
Miami Heat..........201.22
Phoenix Suns........201.22
Utah Jazz...........200.85
Detroit Pistons.....200.78
Chicago Bulls.......200.69
Milwaukee Bucks.....199.01
Philadelphia 76ers..197.86
Charlotte Bobcats...197.78
New Jersey Nets.....196.95
New York Knicks.....194.55
Golden State........194.50
Minnesota Twolves...194.47
Memphis Grizzlies...193.91
Sacramento Kings....193.24
Washington Wizards..193.03
LA Clippers.........191.36
OKC Thunder.........188.09
Now we have a big enough sample size to make some observations.
1. Portland might be really good.
I get the feeling this might be partially a fluke (they have had two really big blowouts and it is still early). They have the second best offense and a slightly above average defense. If Oden ever turns out to be the defensive stopper experts think he will become, it will be an ugly next couple of years for the Nuggets.
2. Cleveland is almost as good as the Lakers.
Cleveland has surprised everyone in the world with the best offense in the NBA. And it isn't even close. The Lakers, on the other hand, have the best defense in the NBA. We know from last year that they also have the ability to play the best offense in the NBA. It will be horrible for the NBA when they put it all together. I expect, in the long term that the Lakers will put some distance between themselves and everyone else because I get the feeling right now they are toying with teams during the first half and then killing them in the second. At this point, both of these teams project to win over 65 games.
3. Utah is coming. Watch out.
The Jazz have had every problem imaginable and are still an above average team. They will be trouble for the Nuggets (and everybody else) in the future.
4. The Nuggets are pretty good.
Thank God. The Billups trade changed everything. They have a barely above average offense and an above average defense. The problem for them is that they play in a nasty division. I expect them to get better on offense as George Karl starts to figure out how the pieces fit (and stops playing Dahntay Jones). The interesting thing is that they are better than the Pistons, who took away the *great* Allen Iverson. I would like to say that Detroit's fall is not all attributable to Allen Iverson, but...it is. And practice isn't going to help.
5. Oklahoma City's offense is historically bad.
No one really cares about the Thunder, but it is worth mentioning that supposed star Kevin Durant can't even get the Thunder offense within 10 points per hundred possessions of average.
11.29.2008
11.16.2008
Why Play a Bad Starting Lineup?
I am not a fan of George Karl's coaching. Mostly because he doesn't seem to know things that a paid professional should know. My biggest problem with him is that he tends to play lineups that are unproductive more than he plays lineups that are productive.
For instance, the current starting lineup for the Nuggets is Billups, Jones, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. This is also the Nuggets lineup that has seen the most minutes this season. Unfortunately for those of us who are fans of the Nuggets, this oft-used lineup has been outscored this season 98-95 (over the course of 80 possessions).
When I first heard about the Chauncey Billups trade, I assumed the starting lineup would be Billups, Smith, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. This lineup has outscored its opponents 37-30 this season, but has only played about 34 possessions.
To put these lineups in equal terms, the starting lineup has a -5.30 efficiency differential, and the lineup with Smith instead of Jones in it has an efficiency differential of +15.07. Obviously, this is a small sample size, but it appears that the lesser used lineup is better. However, it would probably take an act of God for George Karl to play the better lineup more.
The argument could be made that the starting lineup is playing against *better* competition, so the comparison is unfair. That would be a good point. However, the Nuggets' comeback tonight occurred with the Wolves' best lineup on the court and the lineup with J.R. Smith was on the floor for the Nuggets.
Another problem with our starting lineup is that it cannot rebound. This lineup only gets about 60% of the available defensive rebounds. Sixty percent! If your opponent gets an offensive rebound forty percent of the time, it will be nearly impossible to play good defense over a sustained period of time.
If these trends hold up over the course of the season, I would suggest reconsidering the starting lineup. However, given the fact that Karl did nearly the identical thing last year (overly played a poor starting lineup), I am not holding my breath.
For instance, the current starting lineup for the Nuggets is Billups, Jones, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. This is also the Nuggets lineup that has seen the most minutes this season. Unfortunately for those of us who are fans of the Nuggets, this oft-used lineup has been outscored this season 98-95 (over the course of 80 possessions).
When I first heard about the Chauncey Billups trade, I assumed the starting lineup would be Billups, Smith, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. This lineup has outscored its opponents 37-30 this season, but has only played about 34 possessions.
To put these lineups in equal terms, the starting lineup has a -5.30 efficiency differential, and the lineup with Smith instead of Jones in it has an efficiency differential of +15.07. Obviously, this is a small sample size, but it appears that the lesser used lineup is better. However, it would probably take an act of God for George Karl to play the better lineup more.
The argument could be made that the starting lineup is playing against *better* competition, so the comparison is unfair. That would be a good point. However, the Nuggets' comeback tonight occurred with the Wolves' best lineup on the court and the lineup with J.R. Smith was on the floor for the Nuggets.
Another problem with our starting lineup is that it cannot rebound. This lineup only gets about 60% of the available defensive rebounds. Sixty percent! If your opponent gets an offensive rebound forty percent of the time, it will be nearly impossible to play good defense over a sustained period of time.
If these trends hold up over the course of the season, I would suggest reconsidering the starting lineup. However, given the fact that Karl did nearly the identical thing last year (overly played a poor starting lineup), I am not holding my breath.
11.08.2008
First Team Rankings
If I knew what was good for me, I wouldn't post these until about the end of December in order to get a better sample size, but here is a look at my rankings of each team. Without explaining in too much detail, the basic idea is that I measure each team on a per-possession basis against the strength of its competition. A score of 100 is exactly league average. I then add the offense and 1/defense scores together so that the average score is 200. Here they are...
Atlanta.........217.15
LA Lakers.......208.05
Cleveland.......207.95
Miami...........207.52
Boston..........207.48
New Orleans.....206.46
Orlando.........205.48
Chicago.........204.96
Indiana.........204.08
Toronto.........203.69
Philadelphia....202.32
Detroit.........201.66
Houston.........201.33
Utah............200.91
Charlotte.......200.83
Portland........200.43
Memphis.........200.20
Phoenix.........199.11
Denver..........199.10
Dallas..........197.46
Golden State....197.18
New York........195.58
Milwaukee.......195.38
New Jersey......195.30
San Antonio.....194.33
Oklahoma City...193.47
Washington......191.40
LA Clippers.....190.89
Sacremento......189.72
Minnesota.......186.64
Denver is in the middle of the pack, which is pretty much what you would expect. The biggest surprise is that Atlanta is on top, and it isn't even close. This is what happens when you beat New Orleans, Philly, Orlando and Toronto. I don't actually believe that Atlanta is the best team in the league (Like I said, this is a tiny sample size), but it is striking how well the Hawks have played, especially on defense.
Since these numbers are only based on a few games there is no sense in performing more analysis because a lot of fluky things can happen in so few games.
Also, as I said, I have a new predictor tool that I am testing against the spread this year. Although it is incredibly early to try this, here are my predictions for the games tonight.
Here are the picks (the number next to the pick is the difference between the Vegas line and my numbers):
IND...1
ORL...6
MIA...11.5
CHI...0
MIL...4.5
POR...1
Theoretically, the larger the number above, the better the chance you win the bet. Therefore, Orlando, Miami, and Milwaukee are the best bets. Again, I expect these predictions to be way off as it is WAY too early in the season.
Atlanta.........217.15
LA Lakers.......208.05
Cleveland.......207.95
Miami...........207.52
Boston..........207.48
New Orleans.....206.46
Orlando.........205.48
Chicago.........204.96
Indiana.........204.08
Toronto.........203.69
Philadelphia....202.32
Detroit.........201.66
Houston.........201.33
Utah............200.91
Charlotte.......200.83
Portland........200.43
Memphis.........200.20
Phoenix.........199.11
Denver..........199.10
Dallas..........197.46
Golden State....197.18
New York........195.58
Milwaukee.......195.38
New Jersey......195.30
San Antonio.....194.33
Oklahoma City...193.47
Washington......191.40
LA Clippers.....190.89
Sacremento......189.72
Minnesota.......186.64
Denver is in the middle of the pack, which is pretty much what you would expect. The biggest surprise is that Atlanta is on top, and it isn't even close. This is what happens when you beat New Orleans, Philly, Orlando and Toronto. I don't actually believe that Atlanta is the best team in the league (Like I said, this is a tiny sample size), but it is striking how well the Hawks have played, especially on defense.
Since these numbers are only based on a few games there is no sense in performing more analysis because a lot of fluky things can happen in so few games.
Also, as I said, I have a new predictor tool that I am testing against the spread this year. Although it is incredibly early to try this, here are my predictions for the games tonight.
Here are the picks (the number next to the pick is the difference between the Vegas line and my numbers):
IND...1
ORL...6
MIA...11.5
CHI...0
MIL...4.5
POR...1
Theoretically, the larger the number above, the better the chance you win the bet. Therefore, Orlando, Miami, and Milwaukee are the best bets. Again, I expect these predictions to be way off as it is WAY too early in the season.
11.04.2008
Coming Soon...
Now that the NBA season is back in full swing, I will be posting again. I have come up with some adjustments to the team ranking system along with a game predictor that should become useful somewhere around the 1/3 mark of the season. I am working on a feature that will implement consistency rankings in order to determine the odds of winning (or covering, if you are a gambler), but it is taking a while because I have to be a lawyer for most of the useful part of the day.
I should have some preliminary rankings up once each team plays about five games (with the warning that they are essentially useless with the small sample size). In the meantime check out 82games.com for an upgrade on their adjusted plus-minus ranking system. It doesn't speak well for Carmelo Anthony.
I should have some preliminary rankings up once each team plays about five games (with the warning that they are essentially useless with the small sample size). In the meantime check out 82games.com for an upgrade on their adjusted plus-minus ranking system. It doesn't speak well for Carmelo Anthony.
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