Leading up to the NBA Finals, the consensus was that the Lakers were by far the best team in the League and that they would easily dispatch the Celtics. This was probably based on the Lakers' domination of the Western Conference Playoffs by sweeping a decent Nuggets team, beating the second best team in the regular season 4-2 in the second round, and destroying the defending champs in the WCFs.
Boston, on the other hand, was unimpressive en route to joining the Lakers in the NBA Finals. It took them seven games to squeak by the Hawks (however, that may have been the most lopsided seven game series ever, with Boston holding a +72 scoring margin in the series). They beat in the defending EC champs in seven, although it is uncear whether Cleveland has more than one player who is a threat on the offensive side of the ball. Boston finished on the upswing, though, by beating an underrated Detroit team in six (it feels wierd calling the Pistons underrated but that was what they had become after posting a 59-win season that no one seemed to really talk about).
So, the Lakers are going to be NBA champs, right?
Well, that depends on which numbers you believe.
Here are the playoff numbers for each team now that we have a decent sample size to consult:
DEFENSIVE QUOTIENT
LA Lakers..........4.87
Boston Celtics.....5.45
OFFENSIVE QUOTIENT
LA Lakers..........6.69
Boston Celtics.....1.84
ADJUSTED SCORING MARGIN
LA Lakers.........11.56
Boston Celtics.....7.29
Everyone's eyes were not deceiving them, the Lakers have been awesome during the playoffs. Their adjusted scoring margin of 11.56 would have easily lead the league this year (Boston led the league with 10.41 in the regular season). However, despite their maligned playoff performance, Boston has a better adjusted scoring margin in the playoffs than LA had in the regular season (7.29-7.18), a performance that should have resulted in an expected W/L record of 62-20. So, Boston's playoff performance is nothing to scoff at.
In case you were wondering, based on these playoff numbers alone, the Lakers have about a 68% chance of winning the series (not taking into account home court advantage because of the small sample size).
The regular season numbers tell a different story.
Defensive Quotient
Boston Celtics........7.96
LA Lakers.............1.71
Offensive Quotient
Boston Celtics........2.45
LA Lakers.............5.47
The Pau Gasol addition did little to change the overall numbers; after his addition, the Lakers had an OQ of 7.43 and a DQ of 0.28 (Therefore the ASM was only increased from 7.18 to 7.71 -- an increase that is only worth about 2 wins over the course of an entire season).
Based on the regular season numbers, the Celtics should win their home games 69% of the time and the Lakers should win their home games only 55% of the time. This means that based on the the regular season numbers, Boston should be favored to win just about as heavily as the Lakers are favored to win based on the playoff numbers. So, this series should be as even as they come (provided that Paul Pierce plays). When this is the case, I say you have to go with the team with homecourt advantage.
Celtics in seven.
UPDATE: I screwed up one of the calculations and just discovered that based on the regular season numbers, the Celtics should win their home games against the Lakers 81% of the time. This would appear to give Boston the advantage necessary to win the series in six. Because Boston won the series in six games, in the future, it may be proper to rely on regular season numbers over playoff numbers (this makes sense as it is a significantly larger sample size).
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