So What is Going to Happen in the Utah-Los Angeles Series?

Here is a quick analysis of the Jazz-Lakers series and what I believe will occur in the remaining three games...

I calculate something called an Offensive Quotient and Defensive Quotient, which is a measurement of how each team performs in comparison with the average team over the course of 100 possessions. The resulting number represents the amount of points a given team is better (or worse) than the "average" NBA team. I use these numbers to calculate the outcome of any given game.

In the Jazz-Lakers series, it is clear that the teams are pretty close to equal.

Offensive Quotient:

Utah.........6.01
LA Lakers....5.46

Defensive Quotient:

Utah.........0.65
LA Lakers....1.71

These numbers demonstrate that the Jazz are about a half a point per game better than the Lakers on offense and about a full point worse than the Lakers on defense. However, both teams made major acquisitions during the season. Here are the numbers for the Jazz after acquiring Kyle Korver and the Lakers after acquiring Pau Gasol.

Offensive Quotient:

Utah..........7.85
LA Lakers.....7.43

Defensive Quotient:

Utah..........0.60
LA Lakers.....0.27

Both teams were absolutely ridiculous on offense after their trades and still slightly better than average on defense.

In the previous four games of the series the home team won. The question then is how the numbers play out if we use home-road splits (using numbers from the entire season):

HOME

LA Lakers

Offensive Quotient.......6.29
Defensive Quotient.......3.24

Utah Jazz

Offensive Quotient.......10.43
Defensive Quotient.......5.03

ROAD

LA Lakers

Offensive Quotient......4.63
Defensive Quotient......0.15

Utah Jazz

Offensive Quotient.......1.70
Defensive Quotient......-3.68

Obviously, each team is considerably better at home, especially the Jazz. This is nothing new. So how does this play out for the series?

Using post-Korver and post-Gasol numbers, you find that in a series of games with even home-road splits (like a 6 game series with 3 home game for each team), Utah would be expected to win 51.30% of the games with an average score of 108.05-107.71. However, as we know, this is a seven game series with the Lakers holding home court advantage. This significantly favors the Lakers (especially with the small sample size of only three games remaining).

The numbers show that in the average home game for the Lakers, they should beat the Jazz 83.23% of the time (Yikes!!). The average score should be 110.48-100.26 (obviously favoring the Lakers). Almost the exact opposite is true for Jazz home games. The Jazz should win home games against the Lakers 84.82% of the time by an average score of 112.39-101.25.

Since the Lakers have two home games to win two games and the Jazz have one home game and two more games to win, the significant advantage goes to the Lakers. Based on these numbers, the Lakers should win the series 74.83% of the time. This is probably consistent with popular opinion. However, if Utah wins tonight, their odds to win the series improve from 25.17% to 87.37%. Needless to say, whoever wins tonight, wins the series.