As I think I have said before, I am working on a system that predicts NBA games against the spread. I am still waiting for a big enough sample size to be completely confident in my system, but I have had some limited success recently.
In its simplest form, my system tracks every possession of every team and measures how the team performs per possession against what the average NBA team does (on both offense and defense). I was unhappy with how the initial system worked, so I tweaked the system to have four different variations -- my original version, a recent performace (last 10 games) version, a weighted version (that weighs more heavily recent performance), and a version that is weighted and incorporates some regression to the mean.
Once I have reached my threshold sample size, I will begin posting picks for recording purposes. For right now, my best performing system is the weighted one with regression to the mean, which has gone 30-18-1 since I have started tracking it.
I have two concerns that I have yet to effectively address. I am trying to incorporate something that accounts for back-to-backs since it seems that teams play worse on the second half of them. Also, when I expect a team to win in a blowout, I have not found an effective way to account for garbage time.
I expect to begin posting picks early in the new year (once all teams have played 30 games).
12.21.2008
New Rankings
Here are the most updated rankings (through games played on 12/20)...
CLE...........214.24
BOS...........211.49
LAL...........207.36
NOH...........205.39
ORL...........205.16
POR...........205.11
DEN...........203.99
HOU...........203.33
ATL...........203.36
SAS...........202.88
DAL...........202.07
PHO...........201.89
UTA...........201.40
CHI...........199.87
IND...........199.31
DET...........199.06
MIA...........198.63
TOR...........198.12
CHA...........197.60
PHI...........197.59
MIL...........197.35
NJN...........197.33
NYK...........196.98
MEM...........195.50
LAC...........195.05
GSW...........194.37
WAS...........193.47
SAC...........191.85
MIN...........191.72
OKC...........190.36
Given their most recent performances, it is remarkable that the Nuggets are still 7th. This can probably be atrributed to the fact that there are only about five teams playing well so far (with Utah and San Antonio to join them soon). The bad news is that they play a really good Portland team twice next. They will be lucky to win one of those games.
Boston projects to be better than they were last year. The crazy thing is that it appears that Cleveland is significantly better than the defending champs. It looks like we are headed for one heck of an Eastern Conference Finals. I don't expect Cleveland's performance to continue, but if it does, they will be the best team in NBA history (numbers-wise). So, the Nuggets shouldn't be too embarassed by their home defeat the other night.
The Lakers have lost their defense. In their first few games, they were the best defensive team in the NBA, but in their last ten games they are playing at 97% of the level of an NBA average team. That is not the stuff of the juggernaut people (including myself) were making them out to be. The Lakers numbers for the last ten games give them a rating of 200.43, making them an NBA average team. Since they are immensely talented, I do not expect this to continue.
I was not the biggest AI or Camby fan when they were on the Nuggets. Camby because he brought nothing to the table offensively and AI because he was bad on defense and was incredibly inefficient on offense. Well, the Nuggets got rid of both of them and seem to be better, while both the Clippers and the Pistons (AI and Camby's new teams) are worse than expected.
I will post a wagering update later today...
CLE...........214.24
BOS...........211.49
LAL...........207.36
NOH...........205.39
ORL...........205.16
POR...........205.11
DEN...........203.99
HOU...........203.33
ATL...........203.36
SAS...........202.88
DAL...........202.07
PHO...........201.89
UTA...........201.40
CHI...........199.87
IND...........199.31
DET...........199.06
MIA...........198.63
TOR...........198.12
CHA...........197.60
PHI...........197.59
MIL...........197.35
NJN...........197.33
NYK...........196.98
MEM...........195.50
LAC...........195.05
GSW...........194.37
WAS...........193.47
SAC...........191.85
MIN...........191.72
OKC...........190.36
Given their most recent performances, it is remarkable that the Nuggets are still 7th. This can probably be atrributed to the fact that there are only about five teams playing well so far (with Utah and San Antonio to join them soon). The bad news is that they play a really good Portland team twice next. They will be lucky to win one of those games.
Boston projects to be better than they were last year. The crazy thing is that it appears that Cleveland is significantly better than the defending champs. It looks like we are headed for one heck of an Eastern Conference Finals. I don't expect Cleveland's performance to continue, but if it does, they will be the best team in NBA history (numbers-wise). So, the Nuggets shouldn't be too embarassed by their home defeat the other night.
The Lakers have lost their defense. In their first few games, they were the best defensive team in the NBA, but in their last ten games they are playing at 97% of the level of an NBA average team. That is not the stuff of the juggernaut people (including myself) were making them out to be. The Lakers numbers for the last ten games give them a rating of 200.43, making them an NBA average team. Since they are immensely talented, I do not expect this to continue.
I was not the biggest AI or Camby fan when they were on the Nuggets. Camby because he brought nothing to the table offensively and AI because he was bad on defense and was incredibly inefficient on offense. Well, the Nuggets got rid of both of them and seem to be better, while both the Clippers and the Pistons (AI and Camby's new teams) are worse than expected.
I will post a wagering update later today...
11.29.2008
Big Four?
Here are my rankings after most teams have now played 15 games. You will notice that there is one team unexpectantly making a run after the undisputed top three.
LA Lakers...........212.48
Cleveland Cavs......211.58
Boston Celtics......208.48
Portland Blazers....207.43
Orlando Magic.......204.93
Houston Rockets.....204.01
New Orleans.........203.32
Dallas Mavericks....202.76
Denver Nuggets......202.45
Atlanta Hawks.......201.84
Indiana Pacers......201.59
San Antonio Spurs...201.45
Toronto Raptors.....201.43
Miami Heat..........201.22
Phoenix Suns........201.22
Utah Jazz...........200.85
Detroit Pistons.....200.78
Chicago Bulls.......200.69
Milwaukee Bucks.....199.01
Philadelphia 76ers..197.86
Charlotte Bobcats...197.78
New Jersey Nets.....196.95
New York Knicks.....194.55
Golden State........194.50
Minnesota Twolves...194.47
Memphis Grizzlies...193.91
Sacramento Kings....193.24
Washington Wizards..193.03
LA Clippers.........191.36
OKC Thunder.........188.09
Now we have a big enough sample size to make some observations.
1. Portland might be really good.
I get the feeling this might be partially a fluke (they have had two really big blowouts and it is still early). They have the second best offense and a slightly above average defense. If Oden ever turns out to be the defensive stopper experts think he will become, it will be an ugly next couple of years for the Nuggets.
2. Cleveland is almost as good as the Lakers.
Cleveland has surprised everyone in the world with the best offense in the NBA. And it isn't even close. The Lakers, on the other hand, have the best defense in the NBA. We know from last year that they also have the ability to play the best offense in the NBA. It will be horrible for the NBA when they put it all together. I expect, in the long term that the Lakers will put some distance between themselves and everyone else because I get the feeling right now they are toying with teams during the first half and then killing them in the second. At this point, both of these teams project to win over 65 games.
3. Utah is coming. Watch out.
The Jazz have had every problem imaginable and are still an above average team. They will be trouble for the Nuggets (and everybody else) in the future.
4. The Nuggets are pretty good.
Thank God. The Billups trade changed everything. They have a barely above average offense and an above average defense. The problem for them is that they play in a nasty division. I expect them to get better on offense as George Karl starts to figure out how the pieces fit (and stops playing Dahntay Jones). The interesting thing is that they are better than the Pistons, who took away the *great* Allen Iverson. I would like to say that Detroit's fall is not all attributable to Allen Iverson, but...it is. And practice isn't going to help.
5. Oklahoma City's offense is historically bad.
No one really cares about the Thunder, but it is worth mentioning that supposed star Kevin Durant can't even get the Thunder offense within 10 points per hundred possessions of average.
LA Lakers...........212.48
Cleveland Cavs......211.58
Boston Celtics......208.48
Portland Blazers....207.43
Orlando Magic.......204.93
Houston Rockets.....204.01
New Orleans.........203.32
Dallas Mavericks....202.76
Denver Nuggets......202.45
Atlanta Hawks.......201.84
Indiana Pacers......201.59
San Antonio Spurs...201.45
Toronto Raptors.....201.43
Miami Heat..........201.22
Phoenix Suns........201.22
Utah Jazz...........200.85
Detroit Pistons.....200.78
Chicago Bulls.......200.69
Milwaukee Bucks.....199.01
Philadelphia 76ers..197.86
Charlotte Bobcats...197.78
New Jersey Nets.....196.95
New York Knicks.....194.55
Golden State........194.50
Minnesota Twolves...194.47
Memphis Grizzlies...193.91
Sacramento Kings....193.24
Washington Wizards..193.03
LA Clippers.........191.36
OKC Thunder.........188.09
Now we have a big enough sample size to make some observations.
1. Portland might be really good.
I get the feeling this might be partially a fluke (they have had two really big blowouts and it is still early). They have the second best offense and a slightly above average defense. If Oden ever turns out to be the defensive stopper experts think he will become, it will be an ugly next couple of years for the Nuggets.
2. Cleveland is almost as good as the Lakers.
Cleveland has surprised everyone in the world with the best offense in the NBA. And it isn't even close. The Lakers, on the other hand, have the best defense in the NBA. We know from last year that they also have the ability to play the best offense in the NBA. It will be horrible for the NBA when they put it all together. I expect, in the long term that the Lakers will put some distance between themselves and everyone else because I get the feeling right now they are toying with teams during the first half and then killing them in the second. At this point, both of these teams project to win over 65 games.
3. Utah is coming. Watch out.
The Jazz have had every problem imaginable and are still an above average team. They will be trouble for the Nuggets (and everybody else) in the future.
4. The Nuggets are pretty good.
Thank God. The Billups trade changed everything. They have a barely above average offense and an above average defense. The problem for them is that they play in a nasty division. I expect them to get better on offense as George Karl starts to figure out how the pieces fit (and stops playing Dahntay Jones). The interesting thing is that they are better than the Pistons, who took away the *great* Allen Iverson. I would like to say that Detroit's fall is not all attributable to Allen Iverson, but...it is. And practice isn't going to help.
5. Oklahoma City's offense is historically bad.
No one really cares about the Thunder, but it is worth mentioning that supposed star Kevin Durant can't even get the Thunder offense within 10 points per hundred possessions of average.
11.16.2008
Why Play a Bad Starting Lineup?
I am not a fan of George Karl's coaching. Mostly because he doesn't seem to know things that a paid professional should know. My biggest problem with him is that he tends to play lineups that are unproductive more than he plays lineups that are productive.
For instance, the current starting lineup for the Nuggets is Billups, Jones, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. This is also the Nuggets lineup that has seen the most minutes this season. Unfortunately for those of us who are fans of the Nuggets, this oft-used lineup has been outscored this season 98-95 (over the course of 80 possessions).
When I first heard about the Chauncey Billups trade, I assumed the starting lineup would be Billups, Smith, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. This lineup has outscored its opponents 37-30 this season, but has only played about 34 possessions.
To put these lineups in equal terms, the starting lineup has a -5.30 efficiency differential, and the lineup with Smith instead of Jones in it has an efficiency differential of +15.07. Obviously, this is a small sample size, but it appears that the lesser used lineup is better. However, it would probably take an act of God for George Karl to play the better lineup more.
The argument could be made that the starting lineup is playing against *better* competition, so the comparison is unfair. That would be a good point. However, the Nuggets' comeback tonight occurred with the Wolves' best lineup on the court and the lineup with J.R. Smith was on the floor for the Nuggets.
Another problem with our starting lineup is that it cannot rebound. This lineup only gets about 60% of the available defensive rebounds. Sixty percent! If your opponent gets an offensive rebound forty percent of the time, it will be nearly impossible to play good defense over a sustained period of time.
If these trends hold up over the course of the season, I would suggest reconsidering the starting lineup. However, given the fact that Karl did nearly the identical thing last year (overly played a poor starting lineup), I am not holding my breath.
For instance, the current starting lineup for the Nuggets is Billups, Jones, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. This is also the Nuggets lineup that has seen the most minutes this season. Unfortunately for those of us who are fans of the Nuggets, this oft-used lineup has been outscored this season 98-95 (over the course of 80 possessions).
When I first heard about the Chauncey Billups trade, I assumed the starting lineup would be Billups, Smith, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. This lineup has outscored its opponents 37-30 this season, but has only played about 34 possessions.
To put these lineups in equal terms, the starting lineup has a -5.30 efficiency differential, and the lineup with Smith instead of Jones in it has an efficiency differential of +15.07. Obviously, this is a small sample size, but it appears that the lesser used lineup is better. However, it would probably take an act of God for George Karl to play the better lineup more.
The argument could be made that the starting lineup is playing against *better* competition, so the comparison is unfair. That would be a good point. However, the Nuggets' comeback tonight occurred with the Wolves' best lineup on the court and the lineup with J.R. Smith was on the floor for the Nuggets.
Another problem with our starting lineup is that it cannot rebound. This lineup only gets about 60% of the available defensive rebounds. Sixty percent! If your opponent gets an offensive rebound forty percent of the time, it will be nearly impossible to play good defense over a sustained period of time.
If these trends hold up over the course of the season, I would suggest reconsidering the starting lineup. However, given the fact that Karl did nearly the identical thing last year (overly played a poor starting lineup), I am not holding my breath.
11.08.2008
First Team Rankings
If I knew what was good for me, I wouldn't post these until about the end of December in order to get a better sample size, but here is a look at my rankings of each team. Without explaining in too much detail, the basic idea is that I measure each team on a per-possession basis against the strength of its competition. A score of 100 is exactly league average. I then add the offense and 1/defense scores together so that the average score is 200. Here they are...
Atlanta.........217.15
LA Lakers.......208.05
Cleveland.......207.95
Miami...........207.52
Boston..........207.48
New Orleans.....206.46
Orlando.........205.48
Chicago.........204.96
Indiana.........204.08
Toronto.........203.69
Philadelphia....202.32
Detroit.........201.66
Houston.........201.33
Utah............200.91
Charlotte.......200.83
Portland........200.43
Memphis.........200.20
Phoenix.........199.11
Denver..........199.10
Dallas..........197.46
Golden State....197.18
New York........195.58
Milwaukee.......195.38
New Jersey......195.30
San Antonio.....194.33
Oklahoma City...193.47
Washington......191.40
LA Clippers.....190.89
Sacremento......189.72
Minnesota.......186.64
Denver is in the middle of the pack, which is pretty much what you would expect. The biggest surprise is that Atlanta is on top, and it isn't even close. This is what happens when you beat New Orleans, Philly, Orlando and Toronto. I don't actually believe that Atlanta is the best team in the league (Like I said, this is a tiny sample size), but it is striking how well the Hawks have played, especially on defense.
Since these numbers are only based on a few games there is no sense in performing more analysis because a lot of fluky things can happen in so few games.
Also, as I said, I have a new predictor tool that I am testing against the spread this year. Although it is incredibly early to try this, here are my predictions for the games tonight.
Here are the picks (the number next to the pick is the difference between the Vegas line and my numbers):
IND...1
ORL...6
MIA...11.5
CHI...0
MIL...4.5
POR...1
Theoretically, the larger the number above, the better the chance you win the bet. Therefore, Orlando, Miami, and Milwaukee are the best bets. Again, I expect these predictions to be way off as it is WAY too early in the season.
Atlanta.........217.15
LA Lakers.......208.05
Cleveland.......207.95
Miami...........207.52
Boston..........207.48
New Orleans.....206.46
Orlando.........205.48
Chicago.........204.96
Indiana.........204.08
Toronto.........203.69
Philadelphia....202.32
Detroit.........201.66
Houston.........201.33
Utah............200.91
Charlotte.......200.83
Portland........200.43
Memphis.........200.20
Phoenix.........199.11
Denver..........199.10
Dallas..........197.46
Golden State....197.18
New York........195.58
Milwaukee.......195.38
New Jersey......195.30
San Antonio.....194.33
Oklahoma City...193.47
Washington......191.40
LA Clippers.....190.89
Sacremento......189.72
Minnesota.......186.64
Denver is in the middle of the pack, which is pretty much what you would expect. The biggest surprise is that Atlanta is on top, and it isn't even close. This is what happens when you beat New Orleans, Philly, Orlando and Toronto. I don't actually believe that Atlanta is the best team in the league (Like I said, this is a tiny sample size), but it is striking how well the Hawks have played, especially on defense.
Since these numbers are only based on a few games there is no sense in performing more analysis because a lot of fluky things can happen in so few games.
Also, as I said, I have a new predictor tool that I am testing against the spread this year. Although it is incredibly early to try this, here are my predictions for the games tonight.
Here are the picks (the number next to the pick is the difference between the Vegas line and my numbers):
IND...1
ORL...6
MIA...11.5
CHI...0
MIL...4.5
POR...1
Theoretically, the larger the number above, the better the chance you win the bet. Therefore, Orlando, Miami, and Milwaukee are the best bets. Again, I expect these predictions to be way off as it is WAY too early in the season.
11.04.2008
Coming Soon...
Now that the NBA season is back in full swing, I will be posting again. I have come up with some adjustments to the team ranking system along with a game predictor that should become useful somewhere around the 1/3 mark of the season. I am working on a feature that will implement consistency rankings in order to determine the odds of winning (or covering, if you are a gambler), but it is taking a while because I have to be a lawyer for most of the useful part of the day.
I should have some preliminary rankings up once each team plays about five games (with the warning that they are essentially useless with the small sample size). In the meantime check out 82games.com for an upgrade on their adjusted plus-minus ranking system. It doesn't speak well for Carmelo Anthony.
I should have some preliminary rankings up once each team plays about five games (with the warning that they are essentially useless with the small sample size). In the meantime check out 82games.com for an upgrade on their adjusted plus-minus ranking system. It doesn't speak well for Carmelo Anthony.
7.06.2008
Which Free Agent Point Guard is Best for the Nuggets
Barring any unforseen trades, the Nuggets one position of need for next year is point guard (although a center who can make a layup would be nice also). This year's free agent class has plenty of point guards who can be had for the mid-level exception or less. The question is which one would be best for the Nuggets (assuming they keep Chucky Atkins and kick Anthony Carter to the curb). Here is the list of possible future Nuggets backup (or starting) point guards with analysis:
Shaun Livingston
Upside: Livingston was once the fourth overall pick in the NBA draft. He is also six-foot seven, which would be huge for the Nuggets' undersized backcourt. In 2005-2006, his assist percentage was equivalent to what Chris Paul did this year. He has a great handle, court vision, he plays a little defense and is still only 22 years old.
Downside: His knee is broken in about 237 places and was just cleared to play one-on-one drills. He has shown no indication of an ability to shoot the ball. He weighs about 180 pounds.
Overall: He has a good chance of being a league-average point guard when he recovers from injury. Needless to say, this is a significant upgrade from Anthony Carter.
Carlos Arroyo
Upside: He was good a couple of years ago (of course that was when Jerry Sloan coached him). For the most part, he hits his free throws.
Downside: his numbers have trended down the past couple of years. Doesn't get too many assists, yet calls himself a point guard. Doesn't shoot the rock very well from long range. Has a tendency to turn the ball over.
Overall: He would be a good fit for the Nuggets if you put a Puerto Rico jersey on him and tell him it is 2004.
Chris Duhon
Upside: He plays pretty good defense. He isn't a terrible three point shooter. His assist percentage is pretty good.
Downside: His midrange jumpshot makes Anthony Carter look like Richard Hamilton. He is undersized if you want to pair him with Allen Iverson. He REALLY likes to hit the clubs (to the point where he misses team meetings). He wasn't very good to begin with and is possibly getting worse.
Overall: With a couple more years of experience he has a chance to be the next Eric Snow. Perfect for the Knicks.
Jason Williams
Upside: As far as we know, he has never killed anyone. If the Nuggets signed him they would obliterate the team record for tattoos they set last year. He can occasionally hit a three pointer.
Downside: His best season was his rookie year and his worst year was last year. In a related story, he turns 33 this year. He shoots the ball terribly from the field and doesn't do a great job of helping others score. Putting it nicely, he takes ill-advised shots. He gets hurt opening the mail.
Overall: Thanks, but no thanks.
Jannero Pargo
Upside: People think he is good, so the Nuggets may get good publicity for signing him. Not bad at shooting from distance or shooting free throws.
Downside: He is a terrible shooter from inside the arc. He never passes the ball and uses a high percentage of possessions in a very inefficient manner. He is too small to play any semblance of defense. He couldn't get a rebound if it hit him in both hands.
Overall: He is a shooting guard trapped in a small point guard's body. That is the last thing the Nuggets need.
Sam Cassell/Damon Stoudemire
These guys are still alive?
Sebastian Telfair
Upside: He is still only 23 years old. He no longer keeps his gun in a pillowcase.
Downside: His coach somehow allowed him to take 114 threes last year. He has never had a season where he approached being a league-average point guard. He is a scoring point guard who can neither finish at the rim nor shoot the ball particularly well. He is an unwilling passer most of the time. He is one of the worst defensive point guards in the league. Minnesota sucks and they didn't even give him a qualifying offer.
Overall: He fixes exactly none of the Nuggets' problems.
Keyon Dooling
Upside: He plays really good defense. He is getting better at shooting from long range.
Downside: Doesn't really distribulte the ball.
Overall: Could be a good backup point guard option if the Nuggets think his 3 point shooting will continue to improve.
Jose Calderon
Upside: Everything
Downside: Nothing, maybe defense.
Overall: He is the perfect point guard for the Nuggets -- high assist rate, doesn't need the ball to be effective, and shoots tremendously. Too bad Toronto already signed him.
Louis Williams
Upside: He has taken a big step in getting better every year. He is a pretty good defender. He is only 21 years old. Changed from an unwilling passer to a willing one in the span of one year (although he resgressed a little last year). He is fast as hell with the ball and stopped turning it over last year.
Downside: He may not be a true point guard.
Overall: If the Nuggets can get him for the mid-level, they will be set at the PG position for the next five years. Too bad the Sixers will probably do everything possible to keep him.
Mario Chalmers
Upside: He has huge balls (see: taking championship-deciding three with hands in his face). He can shoot, defend and is pretty quick with the ball. He kept taking the ball from Derrick Rose in the championship game. When CDR was going off in the NCAA Final, the Jayhawks played a box and one with Chalmers defending CDR despite a four inch height differential. He was tested and succeeded at the highest levels of NCAA basketball.
Downside: He is not a free agent, but the Nuggets traded away the chance to draft him. He may be a shooting guard trapped in a point guard's body.
Overall: We better hope that Jordan runs the Bobcats into the ground the same way he did with the Wizards, or the Nuggets will regret not taking Chalmers.
FINAL DECISION
Try and do everything to get Louis Williams. If not, take a time machine back a couple of weeks and draft Mario Chalmers. Either way, really.
Shaun Livingston
Upside: Livingston was once the fourth overall pick in the NBA draft. He is also six-foot seven, which would be huge for the Nuggets' undersized backcourt. In 2005-2006, his assist percentage was equivalent to what Chris Paul did this year. He has a great handle, court vision, he plays a little defense and is still only 22 years old.
Downside: His knee is broken in about 237 places and was just cleared to play one-on-one drills. He has shown no indication of an ability to shoot the ball. He weighs about 180 pounds.
Overall: He has a good chance of being a league-average point guard when he recovers from injury. Needless to say, this is a significant upgrade from Anthony Carter.
Carlos Arroyo
Upside: He was good a couple of years ago (of course that was when Jerry Sloan coached him). For the most part, he hits his free throws.
Downside: his numbers have trended down the past couple of years. Doesn't get too many assists, yet calls himself a point guard. Doesn't shoot the rock very well from long range. Has a tendency to turn the ball over.
Overall: He would be a good fit for the Nuggets if you put a Puerto Rico jersey on him and tell him it is 2004.
Chris Duhon
Upside: He plays pretty good defense. He isn't a terrible three point shooter. His assist percentage is pretty good.
Downside: His midrange jumpshot makes Anthony Carter look like Richard Hamilton. He is undersized if you want to pair him with Allen Iverson. He REALLY likes to hit the clubs (to the point where he misses team meetings). He wasn't very good to begin with and is possibly getting worse.
Overall: With a couple more years of experience he has a chance to be the next Eric Snow. Perfect for the Knicks.
Jason Williams
Upside: As far as we know, he has never killed anyone. If the Nuggets signed him they would obliterate the team record for tattoos they set last year. He can occasionally hit a three pointer.
Downside: His best season was his rookie year and his worst year was last year. In a related story, he turns 33 this year. He shoots the ball terribly from the field and doesn't do a great job of helping others score. Putting it nicely, he takes ill-advised shots. He gets hurt opening the mail.
Overall: Thanks, but no thanks.
Jannero Pargo
Upside: People think he is good, so the Nuggets may get good publicity for signing him. Not bad at shooting from distance or shooting free throws.
Downside: He is a terrible shooter from inside the arc. He never passes the ball and uses a high percentage of possessions in a very inefficient manner. He is too small to play any semblance of defense. He couldn't get a rebound if it hit him in both hands.
Overall: He is a shooting guard trapped in a small point guard's body. That is the last thing the Nuggets need.
Sam Cassell/Damon Stoudemire
These guys are still alive?
Sebastian Telfair
Upside: He is still only 23 years old. He no longer keeps his gun in a pillowcase.
Downside: His coach somehow allowed him to take 114 threes last year. He has never had a season where he approached being a league-average point guard. He is a scoring point guard who can neither finish at the rim nor shoot the ball particularly well. He is an unwilling passer most of the time. He is one of the worst defensive point guards in the league. Minnesota sucks and they didn't even give him a qualifying offer.
Overall: He fixes exactly none of the Nuggets' problems.
Keyon Dooling
Upside: He plays really good defense. He is getting better at shooting from long range.
Downside: Doesn't really distribulte the ball.
Overall: Could be a good backup point guard option if the Nuggets think his 3 point shooting will continue to improve.
Jose Calderon
Upside: Everything
Downside: Nothing, maybe defense.
Overall: He is the perfect point guard for the Nuggets -- high assist rate, doesn't need the ball to be effective, and shoots tremendously. Too bad Toronto already signed him.
Louis Williams
Upside: He has taken a big step in getting better every year. He is a pretty good defender. He is only 21 years old. Changed from an unwilling passer to a willing one in the span of one year (although he resgressed a little last year). He is fast as hell with the ball and stopped turning it over last year.
Downside: He may not be a true point guard.
Overall: If the Nuggets can get him for the mid-level, they will be set at the PG position for the next five years. Too bad the Sixers will probably do everything possible to keep him.
Mario Chalmers
Upside: He has huge balls (see: taking championship-deciding three with hands in his face). He can shoot, defend and is pretty quick with the ball. He kept taking the ball from Derrick Rose in the championship game. When CDR was going off in the NCAA Final, the Jayhawks played a box and one with Chalmers defending CDR despite a four inch height differential. He was tested and succeeded at the highest levels of NCAA basketball.
Downside: He is not a free agent, but the Nuggets traded away the chance to draft him. He may be a shooting guard trapped in a point guard's body.
Overall: We better hope that Jordan runs the Bobcats into the ground the same way he did with the Wizards, or the Nuggets will regret not taking Chalmers.
FINAL DECISION
Try and do everything to get Louis Williams. If not, take a time machine back a couple of weeks and draft Mario Chalmers. Either way, really.
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